China Shipping Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report
With the rapid development of Chinese economy, China has become one of the most important country in the world ocean. In the 21st century, the rapid development of Chinese maritime industry, port throughput and container throughput are maintained rapid growth, good momentum of development.
In 2011, the world economic slowdown, and other unfavorable factors to the decline in global trade growth has brought a greater impact on the shipping industry, maritime industry overcapacity phenomenon outstanding. As of the end of 2011, China has a coastal transport ship 10,902, net 57,804,700 tons deadweight; ocean transport vessels 2494, net 67,038,600 tons deadweight.Since 2012, the seaborne market rebound has not ushered in the restoration. 2012 BDI average of 920 points, while the 2011 average of 1549 points, down 40.6 percent. By the end of 2012, more than tons of dry bulk vessels engaged in domestic coastal shipping totaled 1,618 / 49.4 million dwt, 700TEU over container ships (excluding multi-purpose vessels) totaled 149, with a total box-digit 448,000 TEU.
As of September 30, 2013, engaged in domestic coastal shipping more than 10,000 tons of dry bulk carriers (ie, remove the container ship outside the major pieces of the ship and other special general cargo ship, the same below) Total 1660 / 52.19 million dwt, capacity increase of 1.32%; engaged in domestic coastal transportation 700TEU (about 10,000 dwt) container ship above (excluding multi-purpose vessels) totaled 160, with a total box-digit 488,000 TEU, capacity increase of 4.5%.
Long-term needs of the global maritime industry remains strong, China is still in the process of industrialization and urbanization, which, in the future China will continue to focus on promoting major infrastructure construction, will certainly stimulate the consumption of bulk materials, and produce a lot of shipping demand, the pull effect will emerge over time, the development prospects of China's maritime industry is bright.
Investment Advisor in the release of "2014-2018 China Shipping Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report," a total of thirteen chapters. First introduced the definition of maritime transport, characteristics, classification, and then analyzes the current situation of international and domestic maritime industry, and specifically describes the development of container transport, oil transportation, LNG, dry bulk transport. Subsequently, the report focused on the maritime industry at home and abroad to do business analysis, development and future prospects related industries analysis trend analysis, and parse out the final details of the policies and regulations are closely related with the maritime industry.
This study reports data mainly from the National Bureau of Statistics, General Administration of Customs, Ministry of Commerce, Ministry of Finance, CIC Industry Research Center adviser, the investment advisor market research center, China Marine Association and the domestic focus of publications and other channels, data is authoritative, detailed rich, through professional analysis and forecasting model, the core of the industry development indicators of scientific prediction. To you or your organization have a system for the maritime industry in-depth understanding, or want to invest in the maritime industry, the report will be your indispensable reference tool.
Air Demand Analysis: growth is still insufficient effective demand slipped description. We aeronautical data June 7 to June 13 of the track. Industry as a whole, domestic and international routes passenger turnover (RPK) increased by 6.8%, 7.1%, 5.3%, higher than the previous week fell by 1.3, 0.3 and increase fell 4 percentage points.After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday demand growth continued to fall after the description of the current industry business needs ebb travel demand is still relatively weak. From the reservation situation, after the June half compared to a domestic load factor cases there will still be a significant decline in the same period last year, while international lines is little change compared to last year, the pattern of "foreign powers in the weak" demand side of the industry is still will continue. Overall we believe that demand for short-term upward momentum is still insufficient, but because of tourist travel, especially during the holidays this year strong, so in the third quarter superimposed holiday season aviation, aviation boom is still expected to travel during the Spring Festival this year's "stunning blow."
Air Supply and Demand Analysis: PLF extended losses. Overall, domestic and international ASK respectively, an increase of 11%, 11.3% and 8.9%. MoM growth rate increased slightly, but the supply and demand imbalance, resulting in an overall domestic and international routes, passenger load factor fell 3.1,3.1 and 2.7 percentage points, respectively, to 79.5%, 80.1% and 78.9%. That the decline in passenger load factor decline to expand the growth of the demand side, but also shows improvement in demand for more short-term rebound, sustainability is not strong. Reservations from the latest situation, a few weeks later in a domestic-year decline have expanded in the international line is basically stable, short-term industry vulnerable situation or not reversed.
Air-benefit analysis: domestic fares fell by a big margin. Last week, the overall domestic and international revenue passenger kilometers were down 4.6%, 5%, and 2.6% (previous week fell 3.1 percent year on year, respectively, 3.7% and 0.7%).
Among them, the domestic fares after the holidays there was a significant decline resulted in basically no growth in ticket revenue.
Two cabins operating conditions: the boom has not been significantly improved. Last week, domestic and international two cabins revenue passenger kilometers were down 3% and an increase of 2% (the previous week were down 4.7% and 1.2%). You can see, continued sluggish domestic and international lines slightly better.
Industry Outlook and Investment Rating: typical feature of this industry is that non-official travel (travel to visit relatives) needs active and continue to maintain high growth, business needs to improve the range is limited. The third quarter is the peak tourist season brings aviation, aviation so we think the third quarter is still expected to replicate the spring's high degree of prosperity. In addition, with China's exports and imports of sluggish recovery is expected in the short term is expected to stabilize or even a slight appreciation of the RMB, which makes the air in the third quarter is expected to significantly improve the performance year on year. But long-term, due to the consumption of lag, if the economy continues to decline, will likely further impact on aviation demand, therefore reversing the industry still need to wait.
- Previous£ºTen international freight forwarding industry news 2014-7-3
- Next£ºShenzhen is general aviation airport construction site 2014-7-4